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Almaz Antey Running at Full Capacity
[/b]Both long-range and short-range Russian air defense complexes are popular exports. Those exports almost doubled last year, and now the Almaz Antey plant is working at full capacity, including the production of the S-400 Triumph system for the Russian Defense Ministry. Russia's military exports have increased every year since the late 1990s, keeping Russia in second place on the world arms market. Air defense systems were last among Russian arms exports all those years, in spite of repeated claims by officials that their sales would be picking up. Then last year it really happened. Air defense accounted for 9.2 percent of military exports last year, worth $600 million, up from 5.1 percent and $310 million in 2005.
If the Pantsir-S1 complex is put into mass production, Russian air defense exports may grow to $1-1.5 billion annually on a world market of $5-6 billion. Experts say that the air operations that have distinguished warfare in the last decade are an indication of the low capability of land-based air defenses. That, in turns, guarantees the eternal popularity of fighter jets.
The main Russian air defense products on the world market are the S-300PMU family of complexes, with a range of up to 200 km. and strike elevation of up to 27 km., and the Tor-M1 family, with a range of 12 km. and strike elevation of 6 km. China is the main customer for the S-300. Beijing signed contracts for about $1.14 billion for the purchase of 12 divisions of S-300PMU in 1996 and 2001, thanks to which several plants were kept running. Those contracts were followed by orders in 2004 and 2006 for a total of 16 divisions of S-300PMU-2 Favorite for $2 billion. Delivery on those orders will begin this year. Finally, China paid $200 million for two complexes of the naval adaptation of the system, the S-300F Reef, for installation on its 052C cruisers.
Other purchases for the 300 series have been Cyprus (two divisions of the S-300PMU-1 in 1997 for $230 million, relocated to Crete after an ultimatum from Turkey), Vietnam (two divisions of the S-300PMU-1 in 2003 for $230 million), Kazakhstan (a contract was signed in 2000 for the delivery of eight divisions in exchange for property removed at the time of the collapse of the Soviet Union) and Belarus (four divisions of S-300PS from the stock of the Russian Armed Forces with delivery beginning in April 2006).
Algeria signed a package of contracts in April of this year for weapons deliveries worth about $8 billion that included four divisions of S-300-PMU-2 and 38 Pantsir-S1 complexes. Libya may become a customer for the S-300PMU-2 in the future and rumors of possible sales of the system to Syria and Iran have long been circulating on the market.
Export of the S-400 generation may begin soon. The United Arab Emirates expressed interest in the new system in 2002. No contract has been signed yet, but consultations are ongoing. Another major purchaser of S-300 and possibly S-400 systems may be India. Experts say that country could place defense orders of $5 billion or more. The first S-400 division in Russia went on duty this month in Elektrostal, outside Moscow.
The Tor-M1 is another successful Almaz Antey product overseas. China was the first customer for it, signing contracts in 1996 and 1999 to take delivery of 27 Tor complexes for a total of about $900 million. Greece bought 31 Tor-M1 in 1998 and 2000 for $860 million. Several of those Tor systems, along with Os systems, were placed on Cyprus this year t replace the S-300PMU-1 systems moved to Crete.
After that, that was a five-year period without any Tor sales, which ended in 2005 with the announcement of the purchase by Iran of 29 Tor complexes (probably for $800 million), mainly to defend the Bushehr atomic energy station being built by Russia. Washington reacted notably calmly to that deal. The Tor would be incapable of striking high-flying American jet carrying cruise missiles. Four Tor-M1 complexes were delivered to Egypt in 2005 under an agreement to modernize that country's outdated missile forces.
Twelve Tor-M1 systems that Greece did not buy under option were purchased by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez in January of this year. Libya and Saudi Arabia have also expressed interest in the Tor. Analysts say that a new model with a range of 15 km. would be more successful on the market.
The Russian middle-range Buk complex has seen little demand on the world market in recent years. In 1996-1997, 18 Buk complexes were delivered to Finland as payment of the Soviet Union's debt to that country. Since then, Rosoboronexport has advertised the Buk-M1-2 at all international arms exhibitions, but without success. The problem with sales lies in the great reliability of the previous model, the Square (export version of the 2K12 Cube), which remains in use in more than 20 countries.
Almaz Antey has announced that a sales breakthrough for the Buk was made at the end of last year. Experts suggest that the customer was Egypt, since Cairo had expressed interest in updating its Squares as well. It seems the first stage in that upgrade was the direct delivery of a lot of Buk-M2E complexes. Russia has thus returned to a market it lost in the 1970s that the United States has dominated since then. Libya and Malaysia are also considering Buk purchases. Demand for the Buk remains soft, however. Experts note that the system is relatively expensive.
Almaz Antey has a competitor within Russia for the production of air defense systems. That is the KBP Instrument Design Bureau federal state unitary enterprise in Tula, which was not included in the Almaz Antey holding because it also manufactures other types of weapon. KBP's Pantsir-S1 short-range air defense system is a serious competitor to the Tor-M1. The Pantsir is only at the testing test at present, but major contracts for it have been signed with the UAR (50 complexes), Syria (36) and Algeria (38). The Russian Air Force will buy more than 100 of them when testing is completed. Experts say KBP will be running at full capacity through 2011-2012 with those orders and was even forced to turn down an order from Venezuela for them. A naval version of the Pantsir may also be developed.